UFC 125 promises to bring in the new year with a bang. For the first UFC card of 2011, Lightweight Champion Frankie Edgar will attempt to avenge his only loss in a rematch with number one contender Gray Maynard. The Co-Main Event should be a zinger, with Chris Leben and Brian Stan facing off in what is likely to be a fight for the ages. Not to mention Clay Guida and Takanori Gomi will be meeting in a classic matchup of iron chin versus unstoppable knockout power. To round out the Main Card Nate Diaz will face-off against Dong Hyun Kim, and Brandon Vera will meet up with Thiago Silva, both returning for the first time in nearly a year. Even the Preliminary Card boasts big names, such as Marcus Davis, Phil Baroni, and Mike Brown just to name a few.
It is amazing that UFC 125 is looking to be such a great card as it has been absolutely plagued by injuries. The original Co-Main Event was to be Shane Carwin vs. Roy Nelson, but Carwin had to pull out due to a back injury. Then the replacement Co-Main Event with Jose Aldo defending his Featherweight Title against Josh Grispi was canceled as well thanks to an injury suffered by the defending champion. While Josh Grispi has been given a replacement bout on the Prelims Roy Nelson has since been pulled from the card completely with no scheduled bout in sight. Alas, UFC 125 was almost a disaster, but has since shaped up to look like it could be one of the best cards in 2011. So without further ado let’s make some predictions.
Main Event
LIghtweight Championship Bout: Frankie Edgar (c) vs. Gray Maynard
The biggest shakeup that occurred in the UFC in 2010 was perhaps in its lightest division. Frankie Edgar’s dethroning of BJ Penn, who most have crowned the greatest lightweight in MMA history, happened at UFC 112. Still, the legitimacy of Edgar’s win was doubted and the two had a rematch at UFC 118. This time there was no doubt that Edgar had indeed dethroned the legend. Still Edgar doesn’t have an easy road ahead of him, as he now must face the only man to have beaten him, Gray Maynard. Maynard is undefeated, and is licking his chops to take the belt from a man he’s already defeated once before. While the fight probably won’t be a barnburning brawl there is little doubt the matchup between the two will be an interesting one, as stylistically it’s perhaps the the most high profile matchup to date of stick and move boxing a la Dominick Cruz vs. grinding wrestling, a la Jon Fitch.
When it comes to predicting a winner, the majority of oddsmakers have chosen Gray Maynard as the favorite. Once again Frankie Edgar has been overlooked and is the underdog going into a title fight. So far though, Edgar has thrived in this environment. Granted, this is the first time Edgar will be fighting someone who has defeated him so perhaps the underdog status is justified. Regardless, this matchup largely comes down to who can dictate where the fight takes place. If Edgar can keep Maynard at bay with his stick and move style, then he should easily coast to his second title defense. However, if Maynard can control Edgar on the ground, then he should be able to coast to a decision win and become the new champ. So the question that arises is who is better in the weaker parts of their game? The answer is that Frankie Edgar’s wrestling is easily superior to Gray Maynard’s striking, as Edgar is the only man to take down BJ Penn at lightweight in years. Expect Edgar’s wrestling to be more than enough to keep the fight on the feet with Maynard, and expect him to totally outclass Maynard there. Frankie Edgar will retain his belt via Unanimous Decision.
Bet On UFC 125 @ Bodog.Com Now!
Co-Main Event
Middleweight Bout: Chris Leben vs. Brian Stann
The Co-Main Event of the evening isn’t perhaps the highest stakes fight on the undercard of the evening (that honor probably belongs to Clay Guida and Takanori Gomi’s bout) but it is likely going to be the Fight of the Night. Chris Leben is rarely in a boring minute much less a boring round, and Brian Stann is game as well. Stann also just recently dropped from Light Heavyweight to Middleweight and the already strong ex-marine’s power should prove even more dominating against the lighter Middleweights. While the fight is largely being promoted as a fight between two brawlers, Brian Stann is actually more well-rounded than most people think, and Chris Leben is coming off of a submission win over Yoshihiro Akiyama so he is clearly evolving as well. Regardless, it’s no secret that the two like to bring it, and that’s exactly what everyone wants.
Predicting how this fight will go down is almost as difficult as predicting where lightning will strike, as it could literally end at any minute. If Stann fights a smart fight, the former WEC Champion might be able to mix some grappling in with his striking and pullout a well-earned decision against “The Crippler.” In the meantime Chris Leben is going to be doing what he always does, which is try to knock Brian Stann’s head off. With Stann’s willingness to stand in the pocket, expect “The Crippler” to do just that sometime in the 3rd round. Chris Leben wins this via 3rd round TKO.
Bet On UFC 125 @ Bodog.Com Now!
Light Heavyweight Bout: Brandon Vera vs. Thiago Silva
The matchup between Brandon Vera and Thiago Silva is a very intriguing one. The match isn’t quite one between top 10 fighters, but they are both certainly circling that elite group of contenders. In fact, it is very likely that the winner of this fight could be looking towards a top ten opponent in their near future, and the loser could be looking for a new job. Definitely a high stakes match, if not necessarily for the division at the very least for the two men. It will be interesting to see how the both of them rebound from a loss after being out for nearly a year each, Thiago Silva being out since UFC 108 last January and Brandon Vera being out since UFC on Versus 1 in March.
There really is no clear favorite going into this fight as stylistically speaking neither one is a particularly good or bad matchup for the other. Both fighters have Knockout capabilities, and both fighters possess what seem to be mediocre chins, although Silva seems to have an advantage in both of those categories. The counter is that Brandon Vera is faster than Thiago Silva and seeing as how he’s fought at Heavyweight is very used to utilizing his speed advantage. Ultimately, it is unlikely that Vera can dodge Silva for any lengthy amount of time though, and expect Silva to make a statement with a rebound 1st round KO win over Brandon Vera.
Bet On UFC @ Bodog.Com Now!
Welterweight Bout: Nate Diaz vs. Dong Hyun Kim
With all the hype surrounding virtually every other match this is an easy one to overlook, but it will really be a gut check for each fighter. After putting a wrestling clinic on Amir Sadollah last May, Dong Hyun Kim is looking to get another win over a fairly big name opponent. Nate Diaz meanwhile will be facing a very different opponent than his last two at welterweight, as they were both strikers. If Diaz hopes to cement himself as a solid Welterweight that’s in the division to stay, he’ll need to prove himself against a top notch wrestler such as Kim as the top of the Welterweight division is heavily dominated by high level wrestlers.
In this fight Nate Diaz’s takedown defense will be tested, and it will eventually fail. Dong Hyun Kim will take Nate Diaz down after being completely outclassed in the stand-up, but he won’t get any takedowns easy. The ironic thing about this though is that although Kim’s best chance for victory would appear to be turning this into a grappling match, Diaz is perhaps more dangerous on the ground than standing up. As a matter of fact nine of Nate Diaz’s thirteen career wins come by submission. Expect Diaz to catch a tiring, beat up Kim sometime in the third round. Nate Diaz wins this by 3rd round submission.
Visit Bodog.Com To Bet On UFC Today!
Lightweight Bout: Clay Guida vs. Takanori Gomi
The first bout of the Main Card should be an exciting one, as the always entertaining Clay Guida will face-off against the equally entertaining Takanori Gomi. Both of them have some momentum right now, and the winner of this fight will likely be just one or two wins away from being the Number One Contender at Lightweight. The stakes haven’t been this high for either fighter in quite awhile, and knowing such expect both fighters to try to make a statement.
Stylistically speaking Guida is basically a brawling wrestler with insane cardio, thus is able to fight at an incredibly high pace. Takanori Gomi on the other hand possesses legendary knockout power in his hands, but Clay Guida’s chin is almost as legendary thanks to his fight with Diego Sanchez. Unless Takanori Gomi can actually knock Clay Guida out, he has almost no chance of winning this, and unless he can do it in the 1st round his chances will almost certainly have slipped away, as Gomi will be tired out from trying to keep up with Guida’s frenetic pace. It is unlikely that Guida will be able to actually finish Gomi, but expect Guida to take this fight with a Unanimous Decision in a highly entertaining fashion.
Bet On UFC 125 @ Bodog.Com Now!
