After amassing seven straight wins in the UFC including wins over Matt Hughes and Josh Koscheck, Thiago Alves had solidified himself as the #2 welterweight in the world, and a legitimate threat to Georges St. Pierre’s title. Unfortunately for Alves, St. Pierre would thoroughly dominate him in their 2009 encounter, and Alves would be forced back to the drawing board. In his return fight against Jon Fitch a year later, most expected Alves to avenge his loss, however Fitch would control him for three straight rounds, and many began to question Alves’ relevance in the division. Most recently, Alves would outstrike John Howard en route to a one sided unanimous decision win, which has helped his stock considerably, although he’d love to return to the level it was pre-St. Pierre.

Latest Thiago Alves Vs Rick Story Odds;

Thiago Alves – (-215) @ Bodog.Com
Rick Story - (+175) @ Bodog.Com

The UFC brass is relatively disinterested in having Georges St. Pierre rematch Alves, Penn, or Fitch, and would love to push a contender like Rick Story for the title. Story is currently on a five fight win streak in the UFC, and while that includes a couple of close decisions against lower ranked fighters, it also includes a very impressive win over top contender Johny Hendricks in a fight most expected Story to lose. A win against Alves, and you can expect Story to be one fight away from a title shot, two at the maximum.

A lot of people are seeing this as a striker versus wrestler matchup, with Alves taking on the role of striker, and Story taking on the role of wrestler. While I don’t necessarily disagree, the matchup is a little more complex. Alves is definitely the superior technical striker, and throughout his UFC tenure has shown off very impressive leg kicks to wear his opponents down. However Story is not exactly a wrestler in the sense that he uses technical takedowns to bring his opponents to the mat. Rather, Story is a young, hyper aggressive fighter who literally uses his will to bring his opponents to the mat.

The longer this fight stays standing, the better Alves’ chances are of winning. While Story is definitely not incompetent on the feet and surely possesses knockout power, very few people think that Story’s the superior striker. The question then becomes whether Story can bring Alves to the ground.

Alves’ takedown defense has looked superb in some fights (Koscheck, Hughes), and abysmal in others (St. Pierre, Fitch). However in my opinion, Story fights nothing like any opponent Alves has ever faced. Story fights on pure aggression, and will look to pin Alves up against the fence, beat him up, and score points on takedowns. Further, I consider Johny Hendricks to be a superior wrestler than Alves, and if Story could win two rounds against Hendricks with takedowns, it’s not that unreasonable to think he can do the same here.

The prediction is that after taking some early blows, Story switches gears, rushes Alves into the fence, and pounds on him for three rounds. Alves has been a top 5 fighter for a while, and that explains why he’s such a big favorite. Admittedly, this is close to a 50/50 fight, however I truly believe Story is going to pull off the upset here, and for that reason a moderate bet is warranted given the favorable odds.

Conclusion: At +175 a moderate bet is warranted on Rick Story.

Thiago Alves Vs Rick Story Odds;

Thiago Alves – (-215) @ Bodog.Com
Rick Story - (+175) @ Bodog.Com