Ryan Bader originally appeared on season 8 of TUF, winning the show, and proceeded to go 5-0 in the UFC culminating in a close win against PRIDE star Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. For the win, Bader was granted a major contender eliminator against Jon Jones, where Bader would be decimated by the prodigy. This is Bader’s return fight, and he would love to show that he is still a top 10 light heavyweight, and that the Jones fight was simply an off night for him.
Current Ryan Bader Vs Tito Ortiz UFC 132 Odds;
Ryan Bader - (-500) @ Bodog.Com
Tito Ortiz - (+360) @ Bodog.Com
Tito Ortiz was the poster boy of the UFC in its dark ages, but is now seen as most as someone who is past his prime and uncompetitive with the elite of today. He is 0-1-4 in his last five fights, which just shows how much the UFC values him as a draw to keep him around. The general consensus is that if Ortiz loses this fight, the UFC will cut him and that he will retire, however with a win he will be able to keep his career alive.
As soon as this fight was announced I told myself, “There is no way Tito Ortiz can win this fight”. Bader is the better wrestler, the better striker, the better athlete, he probably has the better jiujitsu, he’s younger, and he has more power in his strikes. The list goes on and on. Then I looked at the odds. I saw +400 for Ortiz, and I immediately started coming up with reasons to justify a play on him.
Yes, Ortiz is 0-1-4 in his last five fights, but look at the competition he’s been fighting and how he’s looked in those fights. Ortiz took two rounds from Rashad Evans, and had very close fights with Forrest Griffin and Matt Hamill. Further, all of those fighters are arguably better than the level of competition Bader has been beating, and so losing close fights to them shouldn’t necessarily mean that Ortiz will lose to Bader.
Then let’s look at Bader. He lost the second round against Jardine, the Nogueira fight was very close, and he arguably lost the second round to Schafer. If he’s dropping rounds in those fights, how sure can one be so sure that he’s going to easily dominate a fighter who has only been fighting the best in the world throughout his career?
From a “pick” standpoint, all the signs point me in the direction to believe that Bader is a lock. But betting is a different game. I believe I’ve come up with good reasons to believe that an Ortiz victory is not outside the realm of possibilities, and the return on a Bader bet (check the Ryan Bader Vs Tito Ortiz Odds) is just far to low at this point.
The Ryan Bader vs Tito Ortiz prediction is that Bader wins any way he wants, either outstriking or ground and pounding the former champion, however I can’t recommend a bet. The odds are very steep, and reasons exist to believe that Ortiz will pull off the upset of the year.
Conclusion: The pick is a Bader victory by domination, but at the current odds, the risk reward ratio does not justify a bet on him.
Ryan Bader Vs Tito Ortiz Betting Odds;
Ryan Bader - (-500) @ Bodog.Com
Tito Ortiz - (+360) @ Bodog.Com
