Nate Diaz has been a top guy in the lightweight division since a controversial loss to Gray Maynard in 2010. He would venture unsuccessfully to the welterweight class, however since returning to lightweight he has looked fantastic. He dominated Takanori Gomi in his return using his superior boxing, and in his most recent fight, he upset the surging Donald Cerrone by again using the patented Diaz volume punching style. A win here will very likely get him a title shot.
Latest Nate Diaz vs Jim Miller Betting Odds;
Diaz – (+180) @ Bovada.Lv
Miller – (-220) @ Bovada.Lv
Riding a seven fight winning streak including big wins over Mark Bocek, Gleison Tibau, and Charles Oliveira, Jim Miller seemed to be on the verge of a title shot. That would be derailed however as he was handled by Benson Henderson for three rounds, however with Henderson now holding the belt, that doesn’t look so bad. Since the loss, Miller has rebounded with a submission win over Melvin Guillard, and a win here will likely get him a rematch with Henderson or Edgar.
Stylistically this one is really tough to call. What exactly is Miller good at? His wrestling is average, his striking is average at best, and his biggest strengths are probably his submission game, his cardio, and his lack of risk taking.
Diaz is a very different fighter, but unlike Miller, he’s shown a lot of recent improvement. His wrestling is non existent, his submission game is above average, and his striking is really where he’s shined as of late.
I feel pretty confident in saying that if this fight remains standing, Diaz should hold a pretty heavy advantage. However, if Miller can take Diaz down, I think Miller should be able to rack up points for a decision. A submission seems unlikely either way unless one guy gets hurt.
Can Miller take Diaz down? Three years ago I’d have no problem saying yes, as Diaz was easily taken down by his opponents then. However we really haven’t seen Diaz’ takedown defense tested in his last three fights, and Miller is far from an elite wrestler.
The Jim Miller vs Nate Diaz prediction is that Miller outpoints Diaz in a five round war, mixing up takedowns to earn a close decision win. However I honestly think it’s almost as likely that Diaz keeps this standing and lights Miller up en route to a decision win of his own, or a stoppage midway through the fight. For that reason, despite the fact that I have a slight lean to Miller, I think a tiny play is warranted on Diaz at the current +180 odds.
Nate Diaz vs Jim Miller Betting Odds Conclusion: This is a really tough fight to call, and who knows what to make of the fact that it’s 5 rounds. Play Diaz tiny (1 Unit Bet) or stay away entirely!
Current UFC On FOX 3 Nate Diaz vs Jim Miller Odds;
