Mirko Filipovic is a legend of the sport, and this may very well be his retirement fight win or lose.  After defeating Pat Barry in 2010, some thought that Crocop might be “back”, however after brutal knockout losses to Frank Mir and Brendan Schaub, it’s pretty clear that Crocop is not the same fighter he was in his prime.

Mirko Filipovic vs Roy Nelson Odds;

Filipovic – (+230) @ Bodog.Com
Nelson – (-300) @ Bodog.Com

Roy Nelson was originally known for his time in the IFL, but really made a name for himself by winning TUF 10 and knocking out Brendan Schaub at the finale.  Nelson followed this up with another quick knockout win after Stefan Struve, however his last two fights Nelson has been matched up against top 10 heavyweights in Frank Mir and Junior Dos Santos, both of which saw Nelson on the losing end.  Very few believe Nelson will ever enter the top 10 at heavyweight, and after his performance against Frank Mir, many believe he needs to drop a weightclass or two.

The public has pegged Nelson a pretty significant favourite at -300 odds.  Given the current state of Filipovic’s career, this isn’t too hard to understand.  Crocop has suffered several brutal knockout losses, and Nelson has shown he can end anyone’s night with one punch.

However, the problem with this analysis is that everyone seems to be envisioing the end of this fight with Nelson knocking out Crocop, but nobody is considering the path he has to take to get there.  Stylistically, call me crazy, but I think this is a good matchup for Filipovic.

Nelson has knocked several people out, but can he really outstrike Crocop?  Further, while Nelson is a solid grappler, Crocop has always shown strong takedown defense, and this was especially evident in the Brendan Schaub fight.

I know what you guys are thinking:  Schaub got exposed against Nogueira.  I beg of you though, watch the Crocop vs Schaub fight again, and tell me you aren’t impressed.  Crocop was dealing with a very physical fighter, and did a fantastic job in the clinch and striking portions of this fight.

The Roy Nelson vs Mirko Filipovic prediction is that Roy Nelson catches Filipovic with a big right hand and retires him, but the -300 line is ridiculous.  As done as Filipovic may be, it’s within the realm of possibilities that Filipovic outstrikes him, and I don’t think it’s particularly likely that Nelson brings him to the ground.  At +230, a tiny value play is warranted on Filipovic, since the Filipovic Odds are very appealing.

Conclusion:  I think he’s getting knocked out too, but at +230, a tiny value play is warranted on Filipovic.

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