Kyle Kingsbury vs Fabio Maldonado Odds;
Kingsbury – (-180) @ BookMaker.Com
Maldonado – (+150) @ BookMaker.Com
Kyle Kingsbury is the kind of guy you point to when people say TUF is worthless. Originally appearing on season 8, Kingsbury was easily finished by Ryan Bader and Krzysztof Soszynski on the show, and then by castmate Tom Lawlor at the finale. With three losses to relative unknowns, most believed he would never be a serious contender. Since then however, he has racked up three straight wins in the UFC, including a fight of the night performance against Jared Hamman where Kingsbury showed off his improved boxing, and then a quick 21 second TKO against the effectively undefeated Ricardo Romero. A win here, and Kingsbury will have won four straight in the UFC, and the fact that this is being aired on the main card shows that the UFC wants to build up the Randy Couture lookalike.
Fabio Maldonado is known for three things: he is a boxer training out of the Nogueira camp, he has two wins outside the UFC over Maiquel Falcao, and he is 1-0 in the UFC with a very strange win over James Mcsweeney. After Mcsweeney dominated Maldonado with kicks in the first round, Maldonado came back in the second and crushed Mcsweeney with punches to the body, and both fighters arguably traded 10-8 rounds. In the third, Maldonado easily finished a hurt Mcsweeney, however he also avoided a big controversy, since it turned out that all three official judges had somehow scored the second round against him. With an impressive performance here, Maldonado could be on the fast track for a title shot.
Both guys have shown solid boxing, although it’s hard to imagine that Kingsbury will have an advantage in this department. In regards to wrestling and jiujitsu, it’s anyone guess. Kingsbury had a very weak ground game on TUF, however there’s a good chance he’s improved since then. Further, since Maldonado trains with team Nogueira, one has to imagine he has solid jiujitsu and competent wrestling.
Regardless of their skillsets however, I think this fight comes down to intangibles. Maldonado was dominated by Mcsweeney early who I simply do not consider to be an elite level fighter. Kingsbury on the other hand has shown both fantastic athleticism and cardio in his wins over Hamman and Romero, and I have strong doubts that Maldonado will be able to match his pace.
The prediction is that Kingsbury trades with Maldonado early, and finds himself on the wrong side of the exchanges. After eating a couple of punches, he will close the distance, and look to dirty box and throw knees in the clinch like he did against Romero, and that this will wear Maldonado out. However at odds of -180 odds, I feel there is simply no value in this fight, as I have no reason to believe either fighter is particularly elite, or particularly bad.
Conclusion: The prediction is that Kyle Kingsbury stops Maldonado late, but at -180 odds, no bet is recommended.
Kyle Kingsbury vs Fabio Maldonado Odds;
Kingsbury – (-180) @ BookMaker.Com
Maldonado – (+150) @ BookMaker.Com
