At the end of 2008, Randy Couture finally returned to the UFC, and most believed that Fabricio Werdum was in line for a title shot. Instead, the UFC brass gave Brock Lesnar the title shot, and Werdum was scheduled to fight a complete nobody in Junior dos Santos. Werdum was a 5-1 favorite, and the result was shocking. Dos Santos crushed Werdum with an uppercut a minute into the fight pulling off one of the biggest upsets in UFC history. Since then, dos Santos has been a favorite in all of his fights, and after going 6-0 in the UFC, most are convinced the win over Werdum was no fluke at all. A win here and dos Santos will have undoubtedly earned his title shot with champion Cain Velasquez.
Latest Junior Dos Santos Vs Shane Carwin Odds;
Shane Carwin entered the UFC with a ton of hype and delivered on all of it. After knocking out his first two opponents with ease, he was scheduled to fight then top 10 Gabriel Gonzaga. After getting taken down and wobbled early, Carwin managed to stand back up and knock Gonzaga out cold. With the win, Carwin earned a title shot against champion Brock Lesnar, however due to Lesnar’s illness, Carwin would instead fight (and defeat) Frank Mir for the interim title. At UFC 116, Carwin would finally face Lesnar, and after dominating the champion for the entire first frame, Carwin would gas out and get submitted in the second round. After a year on the sidelines, Carwin is finally making his return, and with a win, will very likely get another chance at UFC gold.
From a technical striking and speed perspective, there is no doubt that dos Santos holds the advantage. He has dominated all 6 of his UFC opponents using his boxing, and it is very likely that will be what he attempts to do here. With that said, Carwin is no slouch in the boxing department. What he lacks in speed and technique, he unquestionably makes up in power. Carwin has continuously displayed the ability to knock his opponents out cold with one punch, and he only needs to connect once to end dos Santos’ night. Whether you decide to bet on this fight should be heavily influenced by how big you believe Carwin’s chances to be of landing that punch.
In the grappling department, it seems very unlikely dos Santos will have any intention of bringing the fight to the ground. Carwin on the other hand has solid wrestling credentials, and it is perfectly within the realm of possibilities that he comes out with a gameplan to take dos Santos down and try to win with ground and pound. However, I find this scenario unlikely. Carwin has yet to display high level takedowns, and all of the Black House fighters (notably Rogerio Nogueira and the Freire brothers) have recently displayed much improved takedown defense working with the likes of Mark Munoz. For that reason, even if Carwin comes out to take dos Santos down, I don’t believe he will be able to.
I am pretty convinced that this will be a standup fight, and undoubtedly give dos Santos the edge in that department and therefore am predicting he wins by first round knockout. However at odds of -185 I can’t recommend a bet for two reasons. Firstly, Carwin’s one punch knockout potential is very real, although I estimate it to be relatively small. Secondly, Carwin can in theory employ the same strategy he did against Frank Mir and bully dos Santos up against the fence for the win, and there’s nothing that I’ve seen that tells me this would be impossible.
Conclusion: The prediction is dos Santos wins by knockout, but unless Santos’s odds drop a little no bet is recommended.
Current Available Junior Dos Santos Vs Shane Carwin Odds;
