Brookins is the winner of TUF 12, and he notably walked through his first three opponents only to scrape by Michael Johnson in the finals.  Koch is a striker training out of the same camp as Anthony Pettis, and holds an impressive 12-1 record with his only loss coming to top ranked Chad Mendes.

Latest Jonathan Brookins Vs Erik Koch Odds;

Brookins – (+170) @ Bodog.Com
Koch – (-210) @ Bodog.Com

For me, this is a very polarizing fight, with only one question: can Brookins get Koch to the ground.  Brookins’ striking looked awful in the Johnson fight, and Koch has repeatedly shown solid striking skills, and more importantly brutal knockout power.

Brookins isn’t stupid, and he knows he has to get this fight to the ground.  Further, virtually all of his opponents on TUF were themselves strong grapplers, and Brookins managed to drag them all to the ground, where he displayed solid back control to either end the fight or win one sided decisions.

I truly believe this is a near 50/50 fight, with either Koch knocking Brookins out, or Brookins getting Koch to the ground and submitting him.  The Jonathan Brookins vs Erik Koch prediction is that Brookins uses his elite level wrestling skills to drag Koch to the ground, and finds another quick rear naked choke submission.  At odds of +170, a small to moderate play has to be warranted, as Brookins is being severely undervalued here.

Conclusion:  At +170, a small to moderate play has to be warranted on Jonathan Brookins given his elite wrestling skills, despite his standup deficiencies.