After spoiling Brock Lesnar’s debut in the beginning of 2008, Frank Mir was granted a shot against interim champion Minotauro Nogueira in a fight in which virtually nobody gave Mir a chance. Nogueira was supposed to have the better jiujitsu and way better boxing, however Mir would shock the world by repeatedly knocking down the former PRIDE ace leading to a second round stoppage. Since then, Mir’s career has sputtered. He would get knocked out by Brock Lesnar in a title unification, rebound with a win, and then proceeded to get knocked out again by Shane Carwin for the interim title. Most recently, Mir knocked out Mirko Crocop which was in my opinion the worst fight in all of 2010, if not the history of the UFC. It was so bad in fact that despite ending in a knockout (and it was the only knockout of the night), UFC president Dana White refused to award Mir the knockout of the night bonus. Regardless, with the win Mir has maintained his top 10 ranking in the division, and most consider him still relevant.

The Latest Frank Mir Vs Roy Nelson Odds;

Frank Mir – (-130) @ Bodog.Com
Roy Nelson – (+105) @ Bodog.Com

Roy Nelson isn’t just a fat guy. Despite his rotund physique, Nelson was the favorite to win, and easily cruised through the field to capture the TUF 10 title culminating in a big knockout over Brendan Schaub. Nelson would follow that knockout win with another over Stefan Struve, and in the process ditched any reputation he might have gained as a boring fighter from the show. Most recently, Nelson would have the misfortune of taking on top contender and striker Junior Dos Santos, where Nelson would lose the striking battle for three rounds en route to a unanimous decision loss. This is his return fight, and he needs a win to stay relevant.

Despite coming off a loss, Nelson’s stock made a big jump in the Dos Santos fight. Most expected that Nelson’s only way to beat Dos Santos would be by taking it to the ground, and that he would get easily knocked out standing. However, Nelson showed off improved boxing skills throughout the fight, and would be Dos Santos’ first UFC opponent to not get knocked out. More importantly, Nelson showed in the loss his understanding of the MMA game as a whole, and knew that he would be unlikely to take Dos Santos down without setting up the takedown with strikes first. The fact that he was unable to impose that gameplan should not be held against him.

Conversely and ironically, Mir is coming off a win, however his stock took a big hit in his fight against Crocop. Most expected Mir to be easily able to take down the aging legend and submit him, however Mir was completely unable to take Crocop down, instead being content to throw small knees up against the fence. The conclusion is that if Mir was unable to take Crocop down, he probably won’t be able to take Nelson down.

Another thing to keep in mind is Frank Mir’s guard. Despite being a jiujitsu black belt himself, there is a good chance that Nelson is at least a little bit worried about getting submitted, and for that reason I believe he will elect to take the fight standing. Therefore, because both fighters are either unwilling or unable to take the fight to the ground, a standup fight can be expected.

Despite the fact that Mir’s striking has undoubtedly improved over the years, the general consensus is that Nelson is probably the better striker, and undoubtedly has more power in his hands. If Nelson was able to stand with Dos Santos for three rounds, it seems pretty unlikely that he is going to be in trouble with Frank Mir. For that reason, the prediction is an overhand right knockout from Nelson midway through the fight, however Mir’s size advantage makes it impossible to recommend anything more than a small bet.

Conclusion: At the current odds only a small bet is recommended on Roy Nelson, as we feel he has a small edge in this bout.

Frank Mir Vs Roy Nelson Odds;

Frank Mir – (-130) @ Bodog.Com
Roy Nelson – (+105) @ Bodog.Com