Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira came into the UFC as one of the biggest legends of the sport. His first two fights saw him characteristically overcome adversity by defeating Heath Herring and Tim Sylvia, however in his third fight, Nogueira was unexpectedly dominated by Frank Mir in a huge upset. After this fight, many believed Nogueira’s beatings had caught up to him, and most expected him to lose to Couture. Instead, Nogueira showed he was still in it by dominating Couture. His next fight would see him face rising heavyweight (and current champion) Cain Velasquez, in a fight that was even odds. Cain Velasquez would knock Nogueira out in the first round, and after over a year on the sidelines (and after pulling out of a rematch with Frank Mir), Nogueira is finally returning.
Brendan Schaub Vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira Odds;
Schaub - (-225) @ Bodog.Com
Nogueira - (+175) @ Bodog.Com
Brendan Schaub appeared on TUF 10, and after finishing his first three opponents in the house, was knocked out by Roy Nelson in the finals. Since then, Schaub has compiled four straight wins in the UFC, including big wins over former top heavyweights Mirko Filipovic and Gabriel Gonzaga. Now, Schaub is looking to add another big name to his list, and with a win, will likely be one fight away from a title shot.
Understanding the storyline of Nogueira is critical to analyzing the fight, because the big question here has nothing to do with how these fighters match up stylistically, but rather whether you believe Nogueira is “done”. In the event Nogueira gets knocked out, people will be talking about how obvious it was that he was washed up. If Nogueira manages to get the victory, people will be talking about how ridiculous it was to count Nogueira out given his history. To be honest, I have no idea whether Nogueira is done. However, I do know that the -225 line on Schaub has been built on the premise that Nogueira is done, and that there is simply not enough evidence to convince me that this is true.
Nobody believed Nogueira was washed up going into the Cain Velasquez fight (as evidenced by the even odds), and somehow from that loss people are concluding Nogueira’s career is over. This makes no sense. Up until that fight, Cain Velasquez had dominated all of his opponents via ground and pound, and Nogueira trained for the fight with the expectation that Velasquez would be attempting to bring him to the ground. Therefore, the fact that Nogueira was knocked out standing by Velasquez tells me nothing about Nogueira’s career status, since Nogueira did not train for a standup fight.
Stylistically, the variables appear to be in Nogueira’s favour. While Schaub undoubtedly has more power standing, his technical boxing hasn’t looked that impressive. If the fight remains standing, I think there’s a very good chance that Nogueira gets the better of the strikes. Wrestling wise, the advantage is Schaub’s, especially given his athleticism, however I have major doubts that Schaub will attempt to bring the fight to the ground given Nogueira’s legendary guard.
Ultimately, I am convinced Schaub’s gameplan is to keep the fight standing and knock Nogueira out, and I think it’s very possible that he does. It’s not unreasonable to believe that Nogueira has slowed down, and that Schaub will be able to overwhelm him. With that said, Schaub’s striking has not looked that great, and I can envision a fight where Nogueira wins the striking exchanges, or where he manages to get the fight to the ground. The Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Brendan Schaub prediction is that Nogueira shocks the MMA world by outstriking Schaub en route to a late submission.
I have very little confidence in the prediction, as I think there are still very good reasons to believe Nogueira’s career is over, given the cumulative damage he’s taken in his career. With that said, at odds of +175, I have to recommend the tiniest of plays on Nogueira.
Conclusion: The +175 line on Nogueira has been built on the faulty premise that his career is over, and his chances are good enough that a tiny play is warranted at those odds.
