Alexander Gustafsson made his UFC debut in 2009, he has compiled a 3-1 record, and his lone loss has come to the undefeated and highly ranked Phil Davis. Gustafsson is known primarily as a striker, however he has shown a well rounded game during his UFC tenure. With a win here, I would wager he’s about three fights away from a title shot.
Current Alexander Gustafsson vs Matt Hamill Odds;
Matt Hamill - (+160) @ Bodog.Com
Alexander Gustafsson - (-200) @ Bodog.Com
Matt Hamill is originally known for being on TUF 3 and as the only deaf competitor in the UFC (and probably all of MMA). Most recently, he took on Quinton Jackson in the main event of UFC 130, which saw Hamill on the losing end of a one sided decision. Hamill was completely unsuccessful in his attempts to take Jackson down, and Jackson easily outpointed Hamill on the feet, although Hamill was never really in danger of being finished. Hamill has entered gatekeeper status in the light heavyweight division, and very few believe he will ever see a title shot.
While Hamill’s striking has undoubtedly improved since his time on TUF, it’s hard to imagine that he’s on the same level as Gustafsson. Gustafsson has outstruck everyone he has fought so far in his career, including high level kickboxer Cyrille Diabate. The longer this fight stays standing, the better the chance I give to Gustafsson to score the knockout.
In the grappling department, the credentials obviously belong to Hamill. With that said, Hamill hasn’t really used a wrestling-centric gameplan in any of his recent fights. Further, Gustafsson showed fantastic takedown defense against Phil Davis, and if Davis had trouble taking him down, it’s tough to imagine Hamill being able to.
With this said, Gustafsson has shown some weakness. He likes using a Rampage-esque takedown, which caused him to lose position against James Te Huna. If he tries the same tactic against Hamill, there is very little question in my mind that Hamill will be able to capitalize and score a takedown. However, even if Hamill secures the takedown, he hasn’t exactly shown good finishing ability on the ground. So, even if Gustafsson does get taken down, I do not think that this will result in an automatic defeat.
Ultimately, in explaining Gustafsson’s tactics against Te Huna, I have to think he held a bigger advantage on the ground than he did in the striking department, and that’s why he elected to go for takedowns. Against Davis, he had no desire to the ground, so instead he did everything in his power to keep the fight standing. I have to believe that knowing Hamill will hold a wrestling advantage here, and that Gustafsson will hold a pretty big striking advantage, that Gustafsson will look to keep the fight standing to score a knockout.
The Alexander Gustafsson vs Matt Hamill prediction is that Gustafsson is able to stuff all of Hamill’s takedown attempts with relative ease, and stops him with straight punches. It’s entirely within the realm of possibilities that Hamill takes Gustafsson down, and even that Hamill outstrikes him, however owing to the Davis and Diabate performances, I feel pretty strongly that Gustafsson will be able to stuff all of Hamill’s takedowns and score the knockout. Even at -210 odds, I think a moderate play has to be warranted on Gustafsson, as he continues his climb up the light heavyweight ladder.
Conclusion: We recommend making a moderate-large play on a Alexander Gustafsson victory.
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Latest Alexander Gustafsson vs Matt Hamill Odds;
Matt Hamill - (+160) @ Bodog.Com
Alexander Gustafsson - (-200) @ Bodog.Com
